Key Tactical Takeaways:
> With both US and German 10s selling off this morning, the anticipated "bear flag" breakout is gaining traction. Confirmation is needed in the form of a close > ... by the 10-Yr yield, though. If such confirmation is delivered, the initial focus would be a run-in with ... heading into Jackson Hole, ahead of longer-term measured move potential to ....
> How SPX handles the high-end of its NT channel at 3448 (today) is going to yield important clues as to how the next 5-10 days play out. A close and hold above this line would ..., while a failed channel breakout will ... For now, the ST Noise Buffer of 3391.40 leaves bulls in control.
> While QQQ has rotated back into a tactical leadership role in recent days, the tech-heavy ETF is showing the kinds of overshoot characteristics that have made it a tactical profit taking target in the past.
Some Quick Thoughts:
With just five more trading days to go before the end of another month-end in this nightmare of a year, both bonds and gold are poised to abandon their runs of higher monthly settlements for the first time in 6 and 8 months, respectively, leaving stocks as the standout asset class in August. In the bond market, investors have, with great reluctance, added duration with light volumes in recent weeks. This morning, this buildup of potential bearish energy is being unleashed in the form of an aggressive sell-off, ahead of this year's virtual Jackson Hole event.
Our recent thesis, which we last touched on in our Weekend Macro Press this past Sunday, states that...
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