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Welcome Equity Correction Begins - Morning Market Squeeze

Key Tactical Takeaways:

> On Wednesday, the S&P cash index ran into the some of the short-term drawdown struggles that often occur immediately following breaks to all-time closing highs. So far, this welcome mean reversion has done nothing to alter the short-term bull trend. This would only change with a close below the ST Noise Buffer at 3348.


> The surprisingly hawkish tone of yesterday's Fed minutes is a game changer for gold prices when it comes to the yellow metal's recent efforts to find its near-term trajectory. Pending a close above 1980.50, gold now faces measured move potential to between 1892 (61.8 extension) and 1809 (100% extension) through the next 5 days of data.


> TLT MUST hold 163.16 (on close) to prevent an aggressive duration shed. Treasuries are bid this morning, buy bearish risks will persist against the 166.67 level for TLT.


> Although the potential for doozy of a short squeeze-supported dollar rally exists, we're waiting for confirmation to reenter a long dollar position. That confirmation would come with a close above DXY 93.52.


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Some Quick Thoughts:

Sometimes it's what's not said that garners attention. My wife certainly knows this, as all she needs to do is stare at, in complete silence, the unchecked "honey do list" that we have sitting on the kitchen counter to get me moving on things. Markets also know how to respond to silence, as was displayed in the wake of Wednesday's afternoon release of the July Fed minutes.


Simply put, Treasuries, gold and stocks fell as the dollar jumped in response to what was not in those minutes. Specifically, the minutes had no mention of extending the duration of asset purchases, which was a story line that had been pushed heading into the meeting. Also influencing the market's swift response was the fact that the Fed appeared to cool substantially on any imminent implementation of yield curve control.


So far, any post-minutes concerns seem to be...


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