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Where SPX Stands 1 Month Removed From The 08/18 New High Close - Morning Market Squeeze

Key Tactical Takeaways:

> Although the VIX has seen a short-term shift higher over the past 24 hours or so, for > 1-sigma daily ranges to become the norm again we need to see the VIX close above...


> On a tactical basis, technology is now a lagging sector. While risk averse sectors like staples, utilities and real estate are now firmly in the ..., it's important to emphasize that they are simply ... the S&P 500.


> The euro's recent breakdown vs. the yen not only confirms the ... in this market, the fact that measured potential to EURJPY 122.13 still exists lends credence to the...


> Today is quadruple witching, when index options, single stock options, options on futures and the futures themselves all expire. Such sessions come with a ...


Some Quick Thoughts:

Hard to believe that we are already 1 month removed from the benchmark S&P 500 closing at an all-time high on 08/18. Isn’t time only supposed to fly when you're having fun? We’re sure you can all relate when I say that not being able to live life freely has not been fun. But we digress. We thought this would be a good time to revisit the study we performed in the wake of the 08/18 breakout, to help bring everything together in an effort to find the next buy zone.


Against the backdrop of one of the weakest seasonal periods of the year (mid-September to early-October), the combination of historic long call options unwinds and this week's softness in jobless claims, retail sales and housing data are worthy opponents for the herd to take on. Though still within the realm of a healthy correction, sellers still hold the upper hand in this battle that began after the all-time high set on 09/02.


Given that prices have been in a range since the initial 09/03 - 09/08 down-leg, price action appears to be tracing a... since 09/08. Against a trailing stop of ..., ... will prevail. But to where? As is always the case, the Event-Driven Stats page (page 8) houses the visualized and tabulated data key to help answer this question.


The Shanghai Comp. reversed sharply higher (+20.7%) from its bullish short-term stop overnight but failed to close above its bearish near-term stop at 3338.41. The Nikkei also bounced from its bullish short-term stop to end the session +0.18%, while the DAX is also higher this morning (+0.21%).


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